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Jul 23, '08



Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is a well known Investor billionaire from India. His stock holdings are keenly watched in India. Below is his portfolio as on 31st March 07. It has not changed much even now. The list will give exclusive stock hints to millions of Indian investors who wish to build a long term portfolio.

This is an update of RJ's stock portfolio as on 31st March 2007:
No.               Company name               % stake
1                   Agro Tech Foods                    4.3
2                   Bharat Earth Mov                    1.5
3                   Bhushan Steel                        2.4
4                   Bilcare                                    11.6
5                   CRISIL                                      7.6
6                   Geojit Fin. Ser.                        8.6
7                   Geometric Soft.                       3.5
8                   Lupin                                         3.5
9                   Mid-Day Multi                           4.5
10                 Prime Focus                           6.9
11                 Provogue (India)                    2.5
12                 Punj Lloyd                               1.9
13                 Ramco Systems                    1.0
14                 Titan Inds.                               6.7
15                 Vadilal Inds.                            2.9
16                 Viceroy Hotels                      13.1
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Jul 22, '08



                                                      Stock Tips of Indian stocks
( By continuing to read this column, the reader confirms that he/she has read the disclaimer at the bottom ) 

Stock/ Company: Indraprastha Gas                                 Recommendation: Buy
Date: 22nd July 08
Face value per share: Re 10
Current Market Price : Rs 109 as on 21st July 08
Target Market Price : Rs 160 in 12 – 18 months

Business description: Indraprastha gas ( IGL ) is promoted by GAIL, BPCL and the Government of Delhi. IGL is in the business of Compresses Natural gas ( CNG ) retailing for automobiles and Piped Natural Gas ( PNG ) retailing for the citizens of the National Capital region ( NCR ). The company is performing well and is growing at a CAGR of 15 - 20% for the last several years. The consolidated business turn over in 2007 – 08 ( March end ) is Rs 706 Cr. This stock tip is a good tip for medium to long term

Positives/ Strengths/ Opportunities for this share:-
- The company operates in a huge untapped market segment of retailing CNG and PNG with huge growth prospects .
- IGL has currently 163 CNG stations and 150 KMs of pipelines in the NCR. And it continues to invest in infrastructure to increase these numbers.
- The commonwealth games is scheduled in NCR by 2010 and the government is planning to introduce 2000 buses and 20000 taxis to run on eco firendly fuel.

Negatives/ weakness/ threats for this share:
- Entry of several other new players due to the attractiveness of the business.

Summary:
Company year ends on: Turn over 08=Rs706 Cr,09E = 805 Cr,10E =Rs 926 Cr
Turn over – expected Compounded Annual Growth Rate CAGR ( 08 – 10 ) = 15 %
Net profit 08 = Rs 174 Cr – expected Compounded Annual Growth Rate CAGR ( 08 - 10 ) = 20%Earning Per Share expected on FV of Rs 10/- ( 08,09,10 ) = Rs 12.5, Rs 13.5, Rs 16
Discounts 2009 estimated eps by a measly 8 times and 2010 eps by 7.4 times
Return on Equity ( 09 E ) = 28%, Return on Capital Employed (09E ) = 39%
This stock tip is a Buy for a minimum of 50 % gain over a 12 to 18 month period
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Disclaimer: Investment in shares are subject to market risks. This is a free advice given to the readers and the readers shall consult their financial advisors before making an investment. The author may or may not have this stock in his portfolio. The readers indemnify the author against any or all damages including loss of their invested money








Jul 16, '08



                                                     Stock Tips of Indian stocks
( By continuing to read this column, the reader confirms that he/she has read the disclaimer at the bottom )


Stock/ Company: MIC Electronics                          Recommendation: Buy
Date: 16th July 08
Face value per share: Re 2
Current Market Price : Rs 106 as on 15th July 08
Target Market Price : Rs 200 in 12 – 18 months

Business description:
. MIC mainly has 2 business divisions, the communication software division and LED display division. The company is focusing on the LED signage ( outdoor and indoor advertising ) business and it is giving a major thrust to it. The consolidated business turn over in 2006 – 07 ( June end ) is Rs 477 Cr. The stock MIC electronics is recommended as a buy for following reasons.

Positives/ Strengths/ Opportunities:
- The LED signage industry is a fast growing industry globally. In addition, MIC is also in an advanced stage to release LED based conventional lighting systems for commercial use.
- The current order book for lighting division alone is Rs 250 crores. MIC is the only Indian company in this business and is a monopoly in India.
- The global LED based lighting market is expected to record a 20% CAGR between now and 2011 to reach USD 11 Bn..

Negatives/ weakness/ threats:
- Entry of several other new players due to the attractiveness of the business.

Summary:
Company year ends on: June 08, Turn over 08E=Rs330Cr,09E =Rs 484Cr,10E=725 Cr
Turn over – expected Compounded Annual Growth Rate CAGR ( 08 – 10 ) = 48 %
Net profit 08E = Rs 61.30Cr – expected Compounded Annual Growth Rate CAGR ( 08 - 10 ) = 56%
Earning Per Share expected on FV of Re 2/- ( 08,09,10 ) = Rs 5, Rs 8, Rs 12
Discounts 2009 estimated eps by a measly 13 times and 10 eps by 9 times
Return on Equity ( 09 E ) = 25%, Return on Capital Employed (09E ) = 28%

Buy this stock / share for a minimum of 50 % gain over a 12 to 18 month period
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Disclaimer: Investment in shares are subject to market risks. This is a free advice given to the readers and the readers shall consult their financial advisors before making an investment. The author may or may not have this stock in his portfolio. The readers indemnify the author against any or all damages including loss of their invested money








Jul 16, '08



                 Indian stock investments of “George Soros” - Billionaire global investor

Stocks on the Indian stock market has been beaten down over the past few months. Billionaire global investor George Soros has turned contrarian on India. The hedge fund Quantum, co-owned by George Soros, went on a buying-spree at a time, when most funds were dumping stocks in a bear market.

It is widely reported that Quantum fund has bought stocks in following Indian stocks in the last few months

- Jain irrigation systems ( 3.8% of equity )
- Jai corp (1.0 % of equity )
- Karuturi networks ( 4% of equity )
- Kalindee Rail Nirman
- India bulls financial services
- India bulls real estate

Quantum’s selective stock picking comes at a time, when institutional investors have been pulling out a huge amount of money from Indian markets. This is due to concerns over a combination of factors such as weak global markets, soaring global oil prices and spiralling inflation in India. “Hedge funds normally are active, when there is some momentum in the market. Quantum may be trying to do some value-buying, but one has to see how long the fund stays invested, given the prevailing uncertain market conditions,” said a stock broker.







Jul 16, '08



           Indian stock investments of “George Soros” - Billionaire global investor

Stocks on the Indian stock market has been beaten down over the past few months. Billionaire global investor George Soros has turned contrarian on India. The hedge fund Quantum, co-owned by George Soros, went on a buying-spree at a time, when most funds were dumping stocks in a bear market.

It is widely reported that Quantum fund has bought stocks in following Indian stocks in the last few months

- Jain irrigation systems ( 3.8% of equity )
- Jai corp (1.0 % of equity )
- Karuturi networks ( 4% of equity )
- Kalindee Rail Nirman
- India bulls financial services
- India bulls real estate

Quantum’s selective stock picking comes at a time, when institutional investors have been pulling out a huge amount of money from Indian markets. This is due to concerns over a combination of factors such as weak global markets, soaring global oil prices and spiralling inflation in India. “Hedge funds normally are active, when there is some momentum in the market. Quantum may be trying to do some value-buying, but one has to see how long the fund stays invested, given the prevailing uncertain market conditions,” said a stock broker.







Jul 16, '08



 Indian stock investments of “George Soros” - Billionaire global investor

Stocks on the Indian stock market has been beaten down over the past few months. Billionaire global investor George Soros has turned contrarian on India. The hedge fund Quantum, co-owned by George Soros, went on a buying-spree at a time, when most funds were dumping stocks in a bear market. These stock tips are good for small investors.

It is widely reported that Quantum fund has bought stocks in following Indian stocks in the last few months

- Jain irrigation systems ( 3.8% of equity )
- Jai corp (1.0 % of equity )
- Karuturi networks ( 4% of equity )
- Kalindee Rail Nirman
- India bulls financial services
- India bulls real estate

Quantum’s selective stock picking comes at a time, when institutional investors have been pulling out a huge amount of money from Indian markets. This is due to concerns over a combination of factors such as weak global markets, soaring global oil prices and spiralling inflation in India. “Hedge funds normally are active, when there is some momentum in the market. Quantum may be trying to do some value-buying, but one has to see how long the fund stays invested, given the prevailing uncertain market conditions,” said a stock broker.  These Indian shares can provide very good returns over a medium to long term








Jul 16, '08



                                                   Stock Tips of Indian stocks
( By continuing to read this column, the reader confirms that he/she has read the disclaimer at the bottom )


Company: Tanla Solutions                 Recommendation: Buy
Date: 15th July 08
Face value per share: Re 1
Current Market Price : Rs 223 as on 11th July 08
Target Market Price : Rs 350 in 12 – 18 months

Business description:
Tanla provides IT service and offerings in network billing & delivery ( aggregation services ), content management, content development and end user support. This supports the entire gamut of mobile transaction business. The consolidated business turn over in 2007 – 08 is Rs 477 Cr

Positives/ Strengths/ Opportunities:
- Mobile content aggregation business is a fast growth industry and is anticipated to grow at over 25% per annum for several tears. Tanla has a good reputation in the UK content market.
- Tanla’s recent entry into m-commerce based solutions shall position it as an early mover thereby offering a pay pr use revenue model.
- The company is also entering the lucrative domestic market by tying up with Indian mobile majors.

Negatives/ weakness/ threats:
- Entry of several other new players due to the attractiveness of the business.

Summary:
Company year ends on: March 08, Turn over 07- 08 = Rs 477 Cr 08-09 E = Rs 654 Cr
Turn over – expected Compounded Annual Growth Rate CAGR ( 07 - 09 ) = 72 %
Net profit – expected Compounded Annual Growth Rate CAGR ( 07 - 09 ) = 59%
Earning Per Share expected on FV of Re 1/- ( 0708, 0809 ) = Rs 16.31, Rs 24
Discounts 2009 estimated eps by a measly 9.30 times
Return on Equity ( 09 E ) = 29.50%, Return on Capital Employed (09E ) = 29.50%

Buy for a minimum of 50 % gain over a 12 to 18 month period
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Disclaimer: Investment in shares are subject to market risks. This is a free advice given to the readers and the readers shall consult their financial advisors before making an investment. The author may or may not have this stock in his portfolio. The readers indemnify the author against any or all damages including loss of their invested money








Jul 16, '08



                                                          Stock Tips of Indian stocks
( By continuing to read this column, the reader confirms that he/she has read the disclaimer at the bottom )


Stock/ Company: Tanla Solutions                           Recommendation: Buy
Date: 15th July 08
Face value per share: Re 1
Current Market Price : Rs 223 as on 11th July 08
Target Market Price : Rs 350 in 12 – 18 months

Business description:
Tanla provides IT service and offerings in network billing & delivery ( aggregation services ), content management, content development and end user support. This supports the entire gamut of mobile transaction business. The consolidated business turn over in 2007 – 08 is Rs 477 Cr. The stock Tanla solutions is recommended as a buy for following reasons.


Positives/ Strengths/ Opportunities:
- Mobile content aggregation business is a fast growth industry and is anticipated to grow at over 25% per annum for several tears. Tanla has a good reputation in the UK content market.
- Tanla’s recent entry into m-commerce based solutions shall position it as an early mover thereby offering a pay pr use revenue model.
- The company is also entering the lucrative domestic market by tying up with Indian mobile majors.

Negatives/ weakness/ threats:
- Entry of several other new players due to the attractiveness of the business.

Summary:
Company year ends on: March 08, Turn over 07- 08 = Rs 477 Cr 08-09 E = Rs 654 Cr
Turn over – expected Compounded Annual Growth Rate CAGR ( 07 - 09 ) = 72 %
Net profit – expected Compounded Annual Growth Rate CAGR ( 07 - 09 ) = 59%
Earning Per Share expected on FV of Re 1/- ( 0708, 0809 ) = Rs 16.31, Rs 24
Discounts 2009 estimated eps by a measly 9.30 times
Return on Equity ( 09 E ) = 29.50%, Return on Capital Employed (09E ) = 29.50%

This is a stock tip. Buy for a minimum of 50 % gain over a 12 to 18 month period
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Disclaimer: Investment in shares are subject to market risks. This is a free advice given to the readers and the readers shall consult their financial advisors before making an investment. The author may or may not have this stock in his portfolio. The readers indemnify the author against any or all damages including loss of their invested money







Jul 14, '08



                            Stock Tips of Indian stocks
( By continuing reading this column, the reader confirms that he/she has read the disclaimer at the bottom )


Stock/ Company: XL Telecom Ltd                         Recommendation: Buy
Date: 15th July 08
Face value per share: Rs 10
Current Market Price : Rs 201 as on 11th July 08
Target Market Price : Rs 300 in 12 – 18 months

Business description:
XL Telecom is broadly into 3 business areas. Namely the a) Photovoltaic cell and module manufacturing b) Ethanol manufacturing, and c) CDMA mobile contract manufacturing. The business turn over in 2006 – 07 is Rs 515 Cr. This Indian stock is a good tip for medium to long term

Positives/ Strengths/ Opportunities:
- Photovoltaic is a worldwide sunrise industry with demand going up from USD 17 Billion ( 2007 ) to USD 40 Billion ( 2010 ). With crude crossing USD 150/ bl demand for renewables in likely to shoot
- Ethanol also is a substitute for crude and if crude rules high, demand for ethanol will grow.
- XL is a popular contract vendor for CDMA phones which is growing rapidly.

Negatives/ weakness/ threats:
- Execution capability of the management


Summary:
Company year ends on: June 08, Turn over 06- 07 = Rs 515 Cr     07-08 E = Rs 583 Cr
Turn over – expected Compounded Annual Growth Rate CAGR ( 07 - 09 ) = 36%
Net profit – expected Compounded Annual Growth Rate CAGR ( 07 - 09 ) = 159%
Earning Per Share expected ( 0708, 0809 ) = Rs 14, Rs 54
Return on Equity ( 09 E ) = 29%, Return on Capital Employed (09E ) = 26%

This share is a good buy for the medium to long term. Buy for a minimum of 50 % gain over a 12 to 18 month period



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Disclaimer: Investment in shares are subject to market risks. This is a free advice given to the readers and the readers shall consult their financial advisors before making an investment. The author may or may not have this stock in his portfolio. The readers indemnify the author against any or all damages including loss of their invested money









Jul 12, '08



This article is specific to india and Indian tax laws.

Mutual Funds are allowed to launch Fixed maturity plans (FMP) which by their name shall be clear to investors. The maturity, whether 1 month or 1 year shall be made very clear to investors in the offer document of the Mutual fund along with the indicative returns expected. (FMP) are closed-end debt funds that aim at generating returns that are indicated at the time of launching the scheme. Mutual funds are not allowed to launch assured return schemes. FMPs, therefore, only indicate the likely returns. FMPs can generate predefined returns because of the way their portfolio is constructed. They invest in debt securities which mature around the tenor of the fund. Since the instruments are held to maturity, there is no risk of the value of the security being affected by interest rate movements and fund managers are able to give returns indicated at the time of investing.
FMPs come with various maturities at which time the money with the returns are credited back into the investor’s bank account. The popular tenors are of one month, three months and a little over a year. As closed-end funds, FMPs cannot accept any fresh investment once the NFO is over. To help investors deploy their available funds and reinvest money from maturing FMPs, mutual fund houses launch a continuous series of FMPs. The NFO is usually open for two to three days and the minimum investment is kept at around Rs 5,000. Since investors cannot withdraw their money till the maturity of the scheme, they need to choose a fund with a tenor that matches their investment horizon.

Why FMP?
FMPs are similar to bank fixed deposits (FD) in features such as fixed maturity period and indicative return. But they do not guarantee returns like FDs do.

So, why should an investor choose an FMP over an FD?
The answer lies in the tax efficiency that FMPs bring to their returns.
a) The example given in the table below shows that while FMP attracts the dividend distribution tax (DDT), FD attracts income tax. Since DDT is lower than the income tax rate, FMP gives a higher post-tax return than FD.
b) FMPs with maturities of greater than one year provide capital gains efficiency by structuring the tenor in such a way that investors benefit from double indexation. For example, an FMP holder holding the FMP launched on 30 March 2007 for a little more than a year (375 days) till it matures on 9 April 2008, an investor gets to use the cost of inflation index applicable for the years 2006-2007 (year of purchase) and 2008-2009 (year of redemption). The tenor of the fund and the date on which it is launched allows double indexation, thus reducing the capital gains tax applicable on the returns.
FMPs suit investors who have a fixed investment horizon and would like to know the likely returns. The tax advantages make them superior to FDs. The only caveat is that investors need to evaluate the credit risk involved in the securities that the FMP is likely to invest in.

FD vs FMP: Effect of Taxation

FD FMP
Investment (Rs) 5,000 5,000
Rate of interest (% p.a.) 9 9
Amount at the end of 1 year (Rs) 5,450 5,450
DDT1 (%) ( Div Distbn Tax ) Nil 14.1625
Tax on interest (%) ( Income Tax rate) 33.66 Nil
Net amount2 5,298.53 5,386.28
Post-tax return (%) 5.97 7.72

1Dividend distribution tax
2Assuming the FMP distributed the entire Rs 450 as dividend

From the above example it is clear that
- Even if an investor holds an FMP less than a year, he/she is better off in the post tax yield. The above example shows that the FMP yield is 7.72% vs the FD yield of 5.97% for an investor in the highest Income tax slab of 33%.
- If the Investor holds the FMP for 375 days as mentioned in b) above, that is between 30th March 2007 till 9th April 2008, then only an indexed capital gains tax apply. The steps to arrive at the tax is as below.
- First find out the indexation factor. Assuming the inflation index for 2006 -07 is 100, for 2007-08 it is 105 and 2008-09 is 110. The indexation factor for this investment is 110/100 which is equal to 1.1.
- Then multiply the actual investment with the Indexation factor. In this case, it is Rs 5,000 multiplied by 1.1 which shall be Rs 5,500/-.
- Now look at the actual return provided for 375 days at the rate of 9% for 365 days. It is approximately Rs 450.
- Calculate the total principal plus interest and subtract it from the indexed investment. This is the gain received. Which is Rs 5450( total receivable) minus Rs 5,500 (indexed cost ). Which is minus Rs 50. As there are no gains, the capital gains tax of 20% on gains need not be applied. So, the post tax yield in this example is 9% vs the post tax yield of 5.97% the FD yields.

Hence, be wise – always invest in FMPs offered by Mutual Funds as against the bank FDs. If you hold it for above 365 days ( across 2 financial years) , the returns are still better.

Disclaimer: These are just my views and the readers are advised to consult their financial advisors before making any investments. The readers indemnify this author against any and all eventualities which may or may not occur in the financial markets. Also, tax illustrations if any are applicable only when this article was posted and they may change subsequently thereby making any tax adjusted return calculation different.














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